On Rebel Theorem 2.0

  • <$150M valuation
  • $150M-$499M valuation
  • $500M-$1B valuation
  • over $1B valuation
Our goal was to identify features with a >80% chance of predicting whether a startup will have a >10x outcome. It turns out that only ~34 features were necessary to drive model performance out of hundreds tested.
  • Company domain name — Top-level domains ending in .com, .co, and .io are good, though the numbers of characters in the domain name doesn’t seem to matter.
  • Company description — The less words the better, and this was actually a quite strong predictor! Perhaps either because great founders are more succinct communicators, or great startup ideas are just simpler.
  • LinkedIn mutuals — The number of mutual connections a founder has with me is positively correlated with success. This one may have the causation arrow pointed in the wrong direction though — startup success itself may cause founders to build more Silicon Valley connections.

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Jared Heyman

Jared Heyman

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Tech guy and investor. Founder at Rebel Fund and previously Pioneer Fund. Chairman of Infosurv and CrowdMed (YC W13). Former Bain consultant. Data nerd.